West Virginia Chamber poll shows tight races for governor, AG while Justice overshadows Mooney with Senate bid
July 7, 2023
Charleston – In the first independent poll of the summer, the Republican race for governor of West Virginia shows two frontrunners neck-and-neck, a tight race for attorney general and a wide lead for Gov. Jim Justice in the U.S. Senate primary.
The West Virginia Chamber of Commerce released a poll Thursday morning showing support in the Republican primaries for the U.S. Senate, governor and attorney general in 2024.
The poll was conducted June 17-20 by Buckhannon-based Orion Strategies. The Chamber/Orion poll was an interactive voice response poll of 651 Republican and independent likely voters (73% Republican, 27% independents) with a margin of error of 6%.
“Historically West Virginia has had very low voter turnout. We are hopeful that polls like these start boosting interest in these important elections and encourage more people to learn about the candidates and be involved,” Steve Roberts, president of the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce, said Thursday in a press release.
In the Republican race to succeed Gov. Jim Justice, it’s a dead heat between three-term Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito, the son of U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va. According to the poll, Morrisey leads with 31% while Capito carries 30% of those polled.
“This race is tied at this point. Both Attorney General Morrisey and Chairman Capito have strong name recognition in the state, but there is a lot of time remaining before Election Day,” Roberts said. “We are obviously paying attention to the campaign finance reports that are due (Friday), as it appears other candidates also have the resources to change the dynamic of the race.”
Morrisey, a New Jersey native who made his home in West Virginia after a career as an attorney and lobbyist on Capitol Hill, won election to the Attorney General’s Office in 2012. In the middle of his second term, Morrisey won the 2018 Republican primary for U.S. Senate but lost the general election to U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.
Morrisey announced his candidacy for governor in April.
“Patrick Morrisey is the only proven conservative candidate running for Governor who has delivered massive victories for West Virginia,” said Taylor Van Kirk, spokeswoman for the Morrisey campaign. “Morrisey is the strong favorite among Republican primary voters who will turn out next year. Morrisey is also the only Republican candidate who has endorsed President Trump.”
Capito, the grandson of the late three-term Republican Gov. Arch Moore, is in his third two-year term in the House of Delegates and finishing up his first two years as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee where he previously served as vice chairman. Capito is an attorney with the Babst Calland law firm.
“The poll shows there are two frontrunners and reflects the growing enthusiasm and support Moore Capito is receiving as he travels the state,” Haden Miller, Capito campaign spokesperson, said. “It is early in the race and Moore is just getting started.”
Respondents also were asked about their support for other Republican candidates for governor. Secretary of State Mac Warner had 9%, Huntington automobile dealer Chris Miller had 5%, State Auditor J.B. McCuskey has 3%, while 5% said they would support another candidate and 17% were unsure.
In the Republican race to succeed Morrisey as attorney general, the results show a close race between the only announced candidates in that primary. According to the poll, 20% support state Sen. Mike Stuart, R-Kanawha, while 14% support state Sen. Ryan Weld, R-Brooke, the Senate Majority Whip and Senate Judiciary Committee vice chairman. However, there remains 16% who would support another candidate and 50% who are unsure.
“We expect that it is likely that Mike Stuart has better name recognition due to his prior service as a United States attorney, but it is clear that this race is wide open and will be very competitive,” Roberts said.
Stuart, nearly five months through the first year of his four-year term as a freshman lawmaker, is a lawyer and a former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia appointed by former president Donald Trump in 2017. He announced his candidacy for attorney general at the beginning of May.
In a text message Thursday morning, Stuart gave a backhanded praise of the Chamber poll, accusing the poll of being partisan and the Chamber as “liberal.” Stuart also criticized Weld as not a true conservative who hasn’t endorsed Trump in the Republican primary for U.S. President.
“I’m just getting started in my campaign and I’m already the clear front runner even in a fake Democrat poll,” Stuart said. “To be the clear frontrunner, even in a fake liberal RINO poll, is really good news. The only poll I care about is the one of actual voters. I’m a real conservative. My opponent is not.”
Weld, an attorney and former assistant prosecuting attorney in Brooke County, announced his attorney general candidacy in April. Weld has served two four-year terms in the state Senate representing the 1st District, which includes Hancock, Brooke and Ohio counties and part of Marshall County. He also serves as a captain in the U.S. Air Force Reserves.
“This race is exactly what we thought it would be – wide open,” Weld said. “Clearly, this poll shows that the candidate who runs the strongest campaign will win this race. I’m happy to see the race is within the margin of error against someone who has been in politics for at least two decades.”
Polling in the U.S. Senate Republican primary shows that despite numerous headlines over the last several months about his business problems and federal lawsuits, Justice still enjoys a wide lead over his closest competitor, Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va.
According to the poll, Justice has 56% support and Mooney has 19%, with 9% preferring another candidate and 16% unsure.
“The governor has almost universal name ID in the state and is a well-known quantity,” Roberts said. “It’s probably safe to say that anyone who hasn’t heard of him is very unlikely to vote on Election Day.”
The Chamber poll results are consistent with polling since the beginning of the year showing Justice in a wide lead. According to a poll released by East Carolina University in May, respondents preferred Justice over Mooney 53% to 12%. Former coal miner Chris Rose had 4%, while 31% of respondents are undecided. According to a March poll released by National Public Affairs, Justice would defeat Mooney in a theoretical two-way primary race 55% to 24% with 21% undecided.
“Gov. Justice has delivered results for West Virginians, and he is the strongest candidate for the U.S. Senate,” Roman Stauffer, Justice campaign manager, said. “We are pleased to see voters have confidence in his leadership and conservative record that includes the largest tax cut in state history, historic budget surpluses, record investment in infrastructure, and creating a strong economy and more jobs for hardworking West Virginians.”
Justice enjoys support from U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and the Senate Republican leadership. Mooney, who just won re-election last November in the new northern 2nd Congressional District and was first elected to Congress in 2014, enjoys the support of more conservative members of the Senate Republican caucus. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is joining Mooney for a rally this evening in Huntington.
“The race is just starting,” Mooney campaign manager John Findlay said. “Once voters learn that Jim Justice supported Biden’s reckless spending, increased gun control, and the largest tax hike in West Virginia’s history, he will lose.”
Mooney also enjoys the support of several conservative groups, including the Club for Growth, which has pledged $10 million for Mooney. Both the Club for Growth have hammered Justice for recent headlines where banks have gone after Justice’s family businesses for overdue debts, the selling of his properties for delinquent property taxes, and the non-payment of federal mine fines and penalties.
Story by Steven Allen Adams, Parkersburg News and Sentinel