West Virginia Poll: solid leads for Morrisey and Justice in upcoming election
August 30, 2024
Jim Justice and Patrick Morrisey have solid leads for statewide elected positions, according to the latest MetroNews West Virginia Poll.
The poll released today shows Justice, a Republican, leading his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, 62% to 28%, in the race for U.S. Senate. The remainder preferred another candidate or were not sure. Justice is a two-term governor.
Morrisey, a Republican, is leading his Democratic opponent, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, 49% to 35%, in the race for governor. The remainder preferred another candidate or were not sure. Morrisey is a three-term attorney general.
The MetroNews West Virginia Poll included 400 completed interviews among registered voters likely to vote in the coming general election. The polling took place August 21-27. All 55 counties are included in the sample. The confidence level is +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The polling results were presented today at the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce’s annual business summit. The West Virginia Poll is presented by The Health Plan.
West Virginia’s elections have tilted more and more Republican in recent years, and this polling underscores that trend.
A question about favorability showed that Justice is one of the most popular, well-known political figures in the state with 57% regarding him favorably and 32% unfavorably.
The poll shows Justice’s job approval, registering at 65%, at its highest level ever.
Views of Morrisey were split more evenly, with 41% regarding him favorably and 35% unfavorably. Another 25% said they aren’t sure.
Morrisey emerged from a bruising Republican primary, with four candidates competing vigorously.
With Elliott and Williams, the reaction wasn’t so polarized – it was that respondents statewide don’t feel like they know them well.
Elliott was regarded favorably by 27% of respondents and unfavorably by 17% — but 57% said they are not sure.
Williams was viewed favorably by 25% of respondents and unfavorably by 18% — but, again, 57% said they are not sure.
“If you look at both Glenn Elliott and Steve Williams, they both are unknown,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which produces The West Virginia Poll.
“It’s a difficult, steep hill when you’ve only got a short time between now and Nov. 5 to introduce yourself and run against a popular governor.”
Federal filings show that Justice has $799,00 cash on hand while Elliott has $69,000 to put toward gaining greater name recognition.
Filings with the West Virginia Secretary of State show Morrisey has more than a million dollars for his campaign while Williams has about $53,000 to get his message out.
“The attorney general has run strong in statewide campaigns. So he’s definitely got a base that’s strong. It’s really how can an unknown Democrat in Steve Williams – how can he build any momentum? How can he build name recognition?” Repass said.
“Patrick Morrisey is clearly the favorite and he has a track record of winning statewide elections. So the question will be what can the Williams campaign do and how do they get the funding to do that?”
In the presidential race, the latest poll shows former President Donald Trump, a Republican, leading vice president Kamala Harris, a Democrat, by a 61% to 34% margin among likely West Virginia voters.
Trump has twice won West Virginia by wide margins.
In 2016, Trump got 68.5 percent of the general election vote in West Virginia, to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 26.4 percent.
In 2020, Trump got 68.6 percent of West Virginia’s general election vote, to Biden’s 29.7 percent.
“If you look at 2016 and 2020, polling and the actual vote, Donald Trump is always in the 60+ percentile range in the polling and he tends to perform better in the actual vote,” Repass said.
“This suggests he’s going to run very strong again, as he would have against Biden, against the vice president.”
Trump is at the top of the political figures that West Virginians view most favorably, according to the poll. Sixty percent view him favorably and 37% view him unfavorably.
His running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 34%.
Harris is viewed favorably by 35% of West Virginians polled and unfavorably by 61%.
Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was viewed favorably by 28% and unfavorably by 39% with 34% saying they are not sure.
Among West Virginia political figures who won’t be on the ballot this fall, Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, showed 48% job approval and 29% disapproval in the poll.
Senator Joe Manchin, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, registered his highest level of support in years.
In terms of job approval, 52% of respondents said they approve of Manchin’s work and 35% do not approve. That approval level is a historic high over his time in the U.S. Senate.
Manchin announced that he is not running for re-election and this past spring changed his registration from Democrat to independent, saying he has gotten fed up by partisanship.
“He’s as high as he’s been. You retire, you declare you’re an independent and look what happens,” Repass said.
Similarly, incumbent President Joe Biden, a Democrat who announced this summer that he is not running for re-election, got a little popularity bump.
Last year’s poll showed 66% of West Virginians disapproving of Biden and 26% approving. This year’s poll shows 65% disapproval, a tick better, and 31% approval.
“So he got a little bit of a bump for getting out of the race,” Repass said.
Story by Brad McElhinny, MetroNews